Post by commissioner on Sept 6, 2023 20:46:49 GMT
Hey all,
With the end of Week 13, I have a better idea of what the playoff picture looks like and what the Week 14 games means to everyone. It is a little confusing but I shall do my best to explain it correctly.
6 teams make the playoffs, the team that finishes 1st in each of the 3 divisions, followed by the three teams with the best record after that. The top 2 teams will receive a bye in the first round of the playoffs and will host the winners from Week 1 of the playoffs in Week 2. So what it looks like is:
The 2 teams getting a bye in the 1st week are:
1 - Dawson City Salary Caps 2.0 - 24 points, West Division Champion, they will receive a bye in the 1st week, and furthermore, they will finish 1st overall. I will explain why below.
2 - St. Joseph Altar Boys - 22 points, Central Division Champion, they will also receive a bye in the 1st week, but cannot finish any higher than 2nd
If in Week 14, St. Joseph wins their game and Dawson City loses theirs, they would be tied with 24 points each, however Dawson City has the head to head (H2H) advantage as they won the only game of the season that they met each other (Week 8 Dawson City won 109 - 103 as the visitor). So the top 2 bye receiving teams have been written in stone.
Following that we know that in the East Division either Montreal - 18 points, or Carnduff - 18 points, will win the division and get into the playoffs automatically that way. Should they both lose this week, Montreal would get the Division Championship as they hold the H2H advantage over Carnduff. Should Carnduff win this week at home and Montreal loses this week on the road, then Carnduff would get the East Division Title and would advance to the playoffs as the Eastern Division Champion. So we know that one of those 2 teams will be in the playoffs.
That leaves the 3 teams with the best record to make it to the playoffs as Wild Card teams.
Currently there are 3 teams with 18 points: Montreal, Carnduff (1 of which enter as a Division Champion) and Waskesui
Regardless of who does what this week, none of those teams can be caught by any of the teams behind them and none of them can catch Seeds 1 or 2. So with that said, all 3 of those teams do make it to the playoffs no matter what. All this week does is determine what seed they take. I also would like to point out that if Waskesui wins, they still cannot catch St. Joseph in their division, so they will be a wild card team no matter what.
So that takes care of 5 out of the 6 teams bound for the playoffs. That leaves 1 wild card spot left and 4 teams all trying to snag that last spot. It was actually 5 teams until I did the math and eliminated Carrot River, I will explain that in more detail below. So, here is how the race for the last playoff spot is shaping up.
After the 1st 5 teams there is a group of 5 teams that looks like this:
Oromocto, Drumheller & Kinookimaw all have 15 points
Southey & Carrot River all have 13 points
Because of how the schedule and standings worked out, it is mathematically possible for Oromocto, Drumheller & Kinookimaw (who are all home teams this week), to lose and for Southey & Carrot River (who are both visiting teams this week) to win and pull out the miracle. With that said, I had to look at the H2H between Southey & Carrot River. Southey owns the H2H advantage and that instantly eliminates Carrot River from the playoff hunt. So, the only way that Southey can snag that last spot is if ALL Oromocto, Drumheller and Kinookimaw lose and Southey (who plays Kinookimaw) wins on the road. If any of the 3 home teams win, Southey is eliminated even if they beat Kinookimaw because the home team(s) that won would have 17 points while Southey would only have 16.
Barring that planet aligning event happening for Southey, the last playoff spot will be determined by who does what this week and what the prior H2H record is with the other team that they are tied with, if any. So will see what each of the home teams do this week.
Furthermore...
It is also possible that all 3 home teams can each win (or lose) their game and in the event that happens, that would create a 3 way tie between all three. I quickly checked the H2H between all 3 and luckily they are each in a different division so have each played each other only once this season which usually makes breaking the tie much easier. And in this case, Oromocto holds the H2H as they won both of their games versus Kinookimaw & Drumheller. Furthermore, if Oromocto loses and Kinookimaw & Drumheller win, Drumheller holds the H2H over Kinookimaw, so they would advance. If Oromocto & Drumheller both lose and Kinookimaw win, then Kinookimaw sneaks into the final playoff spot.
And that means that the defending Champions Camp Crystal Lake, along with Carrot River & Flin Flon will miss the playoffs this season.
So there you have it, I hope I have explained that whole mess well enough.
The playoff picture is quite clear going into the final week. Still some seeding and the final spot left to be determined, but all in all a fantastic battle right to the end.
If anyone has any questions, please feel free to leave a reply or contact me directly.
I will update the final playoff seeding after the conclusion of Week 14. Good luck to everyone still in.
With the end of Week 13, I have a better idea of what the playoff picture looks like and what the Week 14 games means to everyone. It is a little confusing but I shall do my best to explain it correctly.
6 teams make the playoffs, the team that finishes 1st in each of the 3 divisions, followed by the three teams with the best record after that. The top 2 teams will receive a bye in the first round of the playoffs and will host the winners from Week 1 of the playoffs in Week 2. So what it looks like is:
The 2 teams getting a bye in the 1st week are:
1 - Dawson City Salary Caps 2.0 - 24 points, West Division Champion, they will receive a bye in the 1st week, and furthermore, they will finish 1st overall. I will explain why below.
2 - St. Joseph Altar Boys - 22 points, Central Division Champion, they will also receive a bye in the 1st week, but cannot finish any higher than 2nd
If in Week 14, St. Joseph wins their game and Dawson City loses theirs, they would be tied with 24 points each, however Dawson City has the head to head (H2H) advantage as they won the only game of the season that they met each other (Week 8 Dawson City won 109 - 103 as the visitor). So the top 2 bye receiving teams have been written in stone.
Following that we know that in the East Division either Montreal - 18 points, or Carnduff - 18 points, will win the division and get into the playoffs automatically that way. Should they both lose this week, Montreal would get the Division Championship as they hold the H2H advantage over Carnduff. Should Carnduff win this week at home and Montreal loses this week on the road, then Carnduff would get the East Division Title and would advance to the playoffs as the Eastern Division Champion. So we know that one of those 2 teams will be in the playoffs.
That leaves the 3 teams with the best record to make it to the playoffs as Wild Card teams.
Currently there are 3 teams with 18 points: Montreal, Carnduff (1 of which enter as a Division Champion) and Waskesui
Regardless of who does what this week, none of those teams can be caught by any of the teams behind them and none of them can catch Seeds 1 or 2. So with that said, all 3 of those teams do make it to the playoffs no matter what. All this week does is determine what seed they take. I also would like to point out that if Waskesui wins, they still cannot catch St. Joseph in their division, so they will be a wild card team no matter what.
So that takes care of 5 out of the 6 teams bound for the playoffs. That leaves 1 wild card spot left and 4 teams all trying to snag that last spot. It was actually 5 teams until I did the math and eliminated Carrot River, I will explain that in more detail below. So, here is how the race for the last playoff spot is shaping up.
After the 1st 5 teams there is a group of 5 teams that looks like this:
Oromocto, Drumheller & Kinookimaw all have 15 points
Southey & Carrot River all have 13 points
Because of how the schedule and standings worked out, it is mathematically possible for Oromocto, Drumheller & Kinookimaw (who are all home teams this week), to lose and for Southey & Carrot River (who are both visiting teams this week) to win and pull out the miracle. With that said, I had to look at the H2H between Southey & Carrot River. Southey owns the H2H advantage and that instantly eliminates Carrot River from the playoff hunt. So, the only way that Southey can snag that last spot is if ALL Oromocto, Drumheller and Kinookimaw lose and Southey (who plays Kinookimaw) wins on the road. If any of the 3 home teams win, Southey is eliminated even if they beat Kinookimaw because the home team(s) that won would have 17 points while Southey would only have 16.
Barring that planet aligning event happening for Southey, the last playoff spot will be determined by who does what this week and what the prior H2H record is with the other team that they are tied with, if any. So will see what each of the home teams do this week.
Furthermore...
It is also possible that all 3 home teams can each win (or lose) their game and in the event that happens, that would create a 3 way tie between all three. I quickly checked the H2H between all 3 and luckily they are each in a different division so have each played each other only once this season which usually makes breaking the tie much easier. And in this case, Oromocto holds the H2H as they won both of their games versus Kinookimaw & Drumheller. Furthermore, if Oromocto loses and Kinookimaw & Drumheller win, Drumheller holds the H2H over Kinookimaw, so they would advance. If Oromocto & Drumheller both lose and Kinookimaw win, then Kinookimaw sneaks into the final playoff spot.
And that means that the defending Champions Camp Crystal Lake, along with Carrot River & Flin Flon will miss the playoffs this season.
So there you have it, I hope I have explained that whole mess well enough.
The playoff picture is quite clear going into the final week. Still some seeding and the final spot left to be determined, but all in all a fantastic battle right to the end.
If anyone has any questions, please feel free to leave a reply or contact me directly.
I will update the final playoff seeding after the conclusion of Week 14. Good luck to everyone still in.
